WCQ Preview: Serbia – France

The game of the decade? The game that sends The White Eagles to South Africa? The game after which Domenech gets fired? Nobody knows for now, but that game is here – Les Bleus are in Belgrade and they seem rather aware of what this game means. For them, it is a chance to keep their automatic qualification dreams alive. For Serbia, it is a chance to make that dream a reality. In other words, the football ones, Serbia leads France by 4 points with 3 games remaining until the end of the qualifiers for both sides. A victory for Serbia sends the home nation packing for the 2010 World Cup, a draw leaves Serbia in the driving seat in the race to qualify from the top, while a victory for France leaves Serbia on the top of the group but assures that the battle for automatic qualification lasts until the very end of the qualifiers. So, while even a French victory wouldn’t make them feel safe (their fate wouldn’t be in their own hands), it wouldn’t really make Serbia feel comfortable going to the last round of qualifiers with some potentially tricky games against Romania and Lithuania left to be played in October. Therefore, if The White Eagles want to build on their past successes, defeat on Wednesday isn’t really an option. The whole nation has been waiting for this game to come and I swear I’ve never seen such optimism and positive energy regarding this country’s football team. If there is an ideal atmosphere for a game of this scale and importance, then we’ve got it right here in Belgrade. A preview to follow:

Serbia:

The home side goes into this game after a terrific run of results that started approximately one year ago and look poised to continue. Serbia’s efficiency and consistency during this qualifiers was remarkable, although it can be also said that the quality of play didn’t really always follow the run of good results. Skeptics could say that it only a matter of time before this stream ends, but some may also claim that winning with minimum fuss even when you are not at your best is a sign of great teams. One way or another, Serbia has played some good football and achieved some great results. More importantly, it started functioning as a team. Since he came at the helm of the national team, Radomir Antić has done wonders for the side, the results may be great but this is not where the story ends – Serbia seems to overcome all the issues of the past and finally starts reaching it’s full potential. The belief in the national team has never been so great and it is just the kind of atmosphere to be had for a game like this.

Since I’ve already submitted the list of players and explained the situation with the missing ones, I’ll just remind that the two key players who are missing are Boško Janković (knee injury) and Marko Pantelić (unfit, long time without a club). Other than that, Radomir Antić has a full squad of players to chose from. But which formation will he use?
Now, this isn’t very easy to guess. At the back, Nemanja Vidić and Branislav Ivanović are, as always, guaranteed to start, but the left-back and the second centre-back situation leaves various combinations possible. My guess is that he will use the back line of Obradović, Subotić, Vidić and Ivanović, but Ivica Dragutinović, Aleksandar Luković and Aleksandar Kolarov could also appear on the pitch without it being a major surprise.
Guessing the midfield and the attack depends on the formation which Antić will use. My guess, and the general consensus in Serbia, is that we’ll deploy a 4-3-3 that can easily revert to a 4-5-1, with Nikola Žigić as a lone striker and the brilliant pair of Milan Jovanović and Miloš Krasić on the wings. Now, these three players are guaranteed to start whatever formation we use in the end since they are the backbone of our attack, but the rest of the squad isn’t so easy to predict. If we use the 4-3-3, we’ll probably see Dejan Stanković, Nenad Milijaš and Gojko Kačar in the center of the park, but Zdravko Kuzmanović and Miloš Ninković could also be involved if Antić wishes to experiment a little. If we use a 4-4-2, then there’s a good chance that Zoran Tošić could start on the left with Milan Jovanović deployed in a striker’s role alongside Žigić.

Serbian strengths? First of all, I simply need to mention Serbia’s excellence in the air, with Nemanja Vidić, Branislav Ivanović and Nikola Žigić all exceptionally good at headers, so corners and free kicks could be our best chance of scoring against Les Bleus. Since France is probably intent on dominating the game from the start, swift counter-attacks could expose their defensive weaknesses and the players like Miloš Krasić and Milan Jovanović have proven to be very capable in executing some terrific drives from the flanks. Romania has shown what chaos can a counter-attack from the sides do to The French and I think that Serbian strength in that segment makes this a genuine threat to our opponents. My opinion is that Serbia mustn’t rush forward and go for victory from the very beginning, but defend wisely and seek for a chance via set-pieces and counter-attacks, France’s individual talent remains extremely high and any slip we make can be severely punished by their extraordinary attackers. Having said that, I don’t think that bunker-like defense would do us any good, though, giving France lots of the ball means giving France a lot of opportunities. Defend wisely and try to break their attacks on the center of the pitch, any kind of cowardly tactics could make our net full until the end of the game.

Here’s the expected line-up:

Stojković
Ivanović – Vidić – Subotić – Obradović
Kačar – Stanković – Milijaš
Krasić – Žigić – Jovanović

France:

If you’re interested for this game from the perspective of our tonight’s opponents, I’m sure that the guys from The France Blog will do a better job than I can. But I still have to mention some rather important things. First of all, France is in turmoil at the moment. Their coach Raymond Domenech has been extremely unpopular for a while now and it was only a matter of time before his team fail again in an important match, with criticisms coming from virtually all directions. By drawing with Romania at home on Saturday, France has missed the chance to go into this game holding their destiny in their own hands. Like I already wrote, even a victory wouldn’t make them feel safe and this game is now more of a breathing straw than a genuine chance for them. In other words, pressure in extremely high and it can be argued this is more of a vital match for France than it is for Serbia.
But although France doesn’t look strong as a team and haven’t really had much successes for a while now (if you are not counting 1-0 victories against The Faroe Islands and Lithuania as successes), they remain one of the strongest teams on the planet. The game against Romania, although ending with a dissapointing result, actually demonstrated how dangerous can France be if they are given enough chance to play. If they play the same way they did against our eastern neighbors, this isn’t going to be an easy match for Serbia despite all the headlines about “wounded France” and such. Domenech maybe isn’t the best coach in the world, but the team he has at his disposal is a lethal one.

Now, what formation will France use? I think that this one is easy to guess. A 4-2-3-1 with Jeremy Toulalan and Lassana Diarra as holding midfielders is almost guaranteed, while Yoann Gourcuff as an offensive midfielder and Thierry Henry in the forward department are also destined to start. The goal should again be Hugo Lloris’s responsibility, while a defense of Evra, Abidal, Gallas and Sagna can also be expected. In the attack, there is a probability that Karim Benzema will play alongside Nicolas Anelka and Thierry Henry, since Pierre-Andre Gignac didn’t really have the best of games against Romania. Their most dangerous player, however, Franck Ribery, isn’t likely to feature from the start because of a lack of fitness and an alleged injury he suffered on Saturday. Expect him to come on as a sub later in game, though.

France’s strengths? Wow, there is a long list of those. Lots of their players are capable of solving games on their own and the level of individual talent they have is breathtaking. They have an excellent ‘keeper, a highly experienced defense, a formidable midfield and a world-class forward line. It is almost funny when you think that such a team has such qualifying problems and isn’t sure to even feature at the World Cup. But as they are not really at their best under Domenech, we could really defeat them if we’re good enough. That said, I’m not really sure what are our chances if these guys actually decide to finally show what they can in these qualifiers. If that happens, we’re in for one hell of a ride.

Probable starting line-up:

Lloris
Sagna – Gallas – Abidal – Evra
Toulalan – Diarra
Henry – Gourcuff – Benzema
Anelka

Players to watch:

For Serbia, the players who are likely to make a difference are goalkeeper Vladimir Stojković and Nemanja Vidić. The Manchester United’s defender is a back-bone of the Serbian defense and could also easily be on the scoresheet after a set-piece. Since a draw is a rather fine result for Serbia, the defense is a vital part of the team – if it does the job properly, this game will end with a positive result. And just not to be so defense oriented, I’ll also mention my favorite pair of players – wingers Milan Jovanović and Miloš Krasić. They solved a lot of games for us, why wouldn’t they solve this one?

For France, I believe everything will revolve around Thierry Henry. This beast of player has a habit of scoring goals in the best possible moment, be it with his head or feet. If we want not to concede againt France, closely marking their captian is an absolute must. All of their forward players are exceptionally good, but Thierry Henry has a class of his own. Vidić, have you heard that?

Prediction:

Serbian fans, don’t hate me for this, but I believe France is about to win this one. I already see Henry scoring at the worst possible moment with Serbia’s commitment coming fruitless in the end. We may be favorites in some way, but we simply don’t have luck with the bigger teams. This team has never, ever, defeated one of the world’s top sides and I simply can’t predict this tradition will end now. But if we are ever to stop this negative trend, could there ever be a better moment than this one? If we prove we aren’t capable of dealing with the top sides, what are we going to to at the World Cup then? So, I’ll eat my own words and will not write any kind of result. It’s time to fight the odds!